The China Conundrum
Australia’s role in the global position.
The Honourable Kevin Rudd & Linda Jakobson
Hosted by Dr Rebecca Strating and Prof Nick Bisley of La Trobe University
Note: The material you are about to read is transcribed and interpreted by the author after attending The China Challenge: Can a New Cold War be Avoided? on August 27, 2020. The material below is meant to provide an unbiased interpretation and condensation of the conversation between the special quests noted above.
Kevin Rudd:
Australia lacks a coherent response toward the growing concern between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America.
It all began with the Abbot government — aligning nicely with President Xi Jinping taking office on the 14th March 2013.
A ‘rushed’ trade agreement with China and the inconsistent narrative towards relations with China have created an illusion that Australia’s complicated relationship with the middle kingdom is a unique one. Alas, other nations such as France and fellow European nations are coming to terms with the ups and downs that come alongside the formation of a new partnership.
“We can’t work on a collaborative approach towards China unless we first understand how our allies see and act on their own interests. We need to be as clear-eyed as possible, not cherry-picking European viewpoints that match our own and misperceiving what collaborations with Europe are realistic.”
Q: “What do you think Australia’s direction should be towards China?”
The Australian position on foreign policy matters have always been consistent:
- We are a Liberal Democracy, whether the world likes it or not. And those who decide to engage with it must come to terms with that.
- Australia maintains a relationship with the United States through mutually beneficial security interests. While China remains to be Australia’s largest trading partner with over $235 billion each year. A bipartisan relationship continues to play an important role in Australia’s policies.
- Mutually beneficial free trade agreements. Australia is China’s sixth-largest trading partner; it is the fifth-largest supplier of imports and its tenth biggest customer for exports. 25% of Australia’s manufactured imports come from China, with 13% of its exports in thermal coal to China.
- A collaborative approach with Beijing, promoting stability in the world should transcend political interests.
In the long run, it pays for Australia to march alongside its allies. The illusion that Australia is facing a complicated relationship with China is ludicrous.
Other countries are all facing political and economical dilemmas in regards to negotiations with China. Australia should not ‘play victim’, other countries are feeling this pressure too. To stay ahead of the game, Australia needs to be disciplined in its approach to the ongoing disputes.
Q: “What did you think of the speech made by Mike Pompeo during his speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California?
Pompeo called out China’s contemporary totalitarianism and the continuing dedication to Marxism-Leninism of its ruling Communist Party. He reminded his audience that “China is increasingly authoritarian at home, and more aggressive in its hostility to freedom everywhere else.” And he criticised American airlines and movie studios for self-censoring references to Taiwan and “even the most mildly unfavourable reference to China.”
We must keep in mind that this is part of his campaign for office in 2024, riding on Anti-China sentiment.
Q: “Are we in the new Cold War?”
During the last cold war, the main focus was on complete and utter nuclear destruction. There was little to no economic talks.
In 1989, the official GDP of the Soviet Union was $2,500 billion while the GDP of the United States was $4,862 billion. China is beyond those numbers, with a small military might just about the size as Frances’. There have been no proxy wars, proxy disputes, however, have been occurring. Furthermore, we need to consider the internal power grabs within the PRC, if President Xi were to lose power, who are the alternatives?
These deep-rooted GeoPolitical tensions have been caused by changes in the Balance of Power. China has risen in recent years, particularly stretching its reach through the Asian periphery. This has major impacts on global strategic decisions.
Q; “In light of the recent Australian Veto powers around University collaboration with members of the PRC…”
Politics overhand everything. I pose a question to Morrison, What are the case studies/ examples of actions by which the Australian government is trying to ban? Where do the current issues lie? What issues are you trying to solve?
In regards to China’s role with Australia; we never wish to be simply China’s quarry or Japan’s beach. This is why actions such as the National Broadband Network and other similar plans are crucial to diversity Australia’s strength. To remove or reduce the current exposures to risk in the global economy. Australia is very well equipped to be a strong research centre of the world.
Q: “What are some of the flaws in America’s grand strategy towards China?”
As American significance declines in the global context, with the Trump administration unilaterally withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), as well as doing the same with a similar arrangement in Europe, the US has quite literally, handed power over to China. Allowing for the Chinese to flex its economic muscle, rising at the expense of the United States. Accumulatively, China has invested over 1–3 Trillion dollars, larger than the Martial Plan given to Europe after WW2.
Q: “What do you think of the Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI)?
If you’re a small developing country, where can you get capital to build infrastructure? If the United States won't lend it to you, your next option would be to an independent organisation such as the World Bank, the question is are they well funded by developed nations to carry out such a loan in the first place?
China is the other alternative.
Australia is going to find it difficult if they choose to remove themselves from the opportunities from the BRI. At the end of the day, Money talks. America thinks that its military might is sufficient to maintain strategic relevance in the region.
Linda Jakobson:
What is Asia going to look like?
Australian universities might find it increasingly difficult in their future interactions with members of the PRC. Any engagement or mutually beneficial collaboration between Australia and China might be refuted by America. If Australia is forced to choose, issues of funding and support will arise. Foreign investment displacement, international co-operation and economic growth will face speculating countries if these tensions are not resolved.
Alliances can take place in various shapes and forms. Australia seems to be USA leaning, however, we would instead be in search of alternatives to mitigate this build-up. This current Geopolitical tension involves Australia greatly and we should be searching for different shapes and forms in dealing with the situation.
Russias GDP is no bigger than Australia with a decreasing population. Therefore, we see little changes of Russia is going to oppose, however, Russia alongside china will pose headaches to the USA, as the Russians and Chinese are aligned to push back at US interference.
ASEAN are an important balancing power.
India never embraced the open door policy as much as during the early stages of China, protectionism is rampant in India. Unless India deals with its self imposed limitations, we should not see the same level of growth in the 8–10% like we did in China.
Indonesia is the country to continue to watch. It is a successful democracy. As it slowly grows to a larger economy than Australia.
Article was prepared by Richie Dharma
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